Ernya.com

The idea for rotating spells has been tossed around a few times, and I’d like to make a few guesses as to the possible effects this would have. I’m not going to shoot people’s knees out and go straight for the throat, I’m going to do best-case, fairly neutral, and worst-case scenarios. I’m not necessarily against the feature and I’m not necessarily for the feature either, I just think there are good ways it could be done, and bad ways it could be done, just like with anything. Please keep in mind that this is speculation. This is not how things will go, it’s how they could happen and what the effects will be. I do not intend to offend anyone, tell anyone what they should do, imply anything about the admin, suggest this will happen, suggest our admin would do this, be negative on the idea of the feature, imply the feature shouldn’t happen, imply our admins are looking out for anything but our best interests, or ANYTHING but start a conversation about the issue that might give Emy more insight into the general thoughts on it.

I'd like to make it clear that I don't have an opinion, so if you'd like to attack me personally using the guise of rebuffing me in an argument, you're just going to have to find another thread. Please be civil with each other as well; I don't care what your opinions are, you can be reasonable human beings with one another if you simply try.

Best-case: The admins rerelease the spells at a reasonable price that’s on par or just a teensy bit higher than average market price, at the average valuing of hearts. For example, say they rereleased the first three spells, Black, White, and Cyan for the first attempt (though Emy, in another post, has used a different permutation to vary things, this is just the simplest way to include a high-value, median-value, and lower-median value spell in the same argument). They were available in the shop for a month. Let’s assume by the time this comes around the Black spell is worth an average of 35k, the white spell average of 20k, and the cyan spell average of 10k. Obviously these are not the current market values but bear with me on this, the feature might be implemented many months from now if at all. The spells would be released in Chloe’s shop for 120 hearts (or 115 rounded down), 70 hearts (or 65 rounded down), and 35 hearts respectively, assuming Emy values at 300 gold per heart. That means, to get the first set of three spells you’d need 225 hearts. Hopefully this opportunity would prompt many people to donate real money and drag more spells into the system without disrupting it too much, because people aren’t going to sell the spells to users for less than they paid for them unless it’s a charity move. Questers who can donate get the items they want without the hassle of bidding, and Ernya makes buckets of money to help cover the cost of the spells. 70-80% of the userbase is either happy or at least not pissed off, very few users will leave the site completely.

Neutral-case: Everything that happened above, except people don’t donate as much real money to get the items for whatever reason. Not as many spells are pulled into the system and Ernya doesn’t make much off the extra donations, but it still helps boost their funds a bit. People complain about a lack of hearts and some donors buy more hearts to take advantage of the demand, but the price stays the same because the highest-price items in the donation shop are all valued at 300 gold each. The heart shortage potentially raises the inflation of other shop items after they’re gone because not as many people bought them, making hoarders who might otherwise be furious about the rerelease a lot of money, which may or may not appease them depending on their standpoint on rereleasing. 40-60% of the userbase is either happy or not pissed off, 1% of the userbase may leave the site completely.

Worst-case(s): The one you’ve all been waiting for. This is likely NOT going to be close to the reality of the situation if and when it does happen, but this needs to be here for balance. There are two worst-case scenarios contained in this one, because one thing could set off a chain reaction in two ways depending on what happens. Let’s say, going with the above values, that the admin instead release the Black, White, and Cyan spells at below average value. Not by a lot, let’s say they sell them at 100, 60, and 30 hearts. Donors spend tons to get these cheap spells, bringing a lot of money into the site, but the users who worked to quest spells earlier and paid that much or more, or have hung onto their spells for well over a year, are furious. Because of the heightened demand for them, the price of hearts shoots up to 325 or 350 gold each in a month, evening out the difference in price in pure values, but destroying the economy. Many users who can’t donate feel they’ve been treated unfairly or simply cannot keep up anymore and quit the site. 10-30% of the userbase is either happy or not pissed off, 5% or more of the userbase may leave the site completely.
On the other hand, what if the admin valued the spells too high? Let’s say they sell the Black, White, and Cyan spell for 130, 80, and 40 hearts each instead of the originally stated values. The value of the spells shoots up artificially and almost no one spends the hearts to get them because it’s easier/cheaper to buy them in the exchange. Those who already have spells to sell may be pleased that their items increased in value, but the site makes almost no money and questers are furious because now they have to work harder for items that increased in value despite an increase in supply, which is artificial inflation. The economy begins to fall apart because suddenly all the spells are facing artificial inflation and they constitute roughly 20%+ of the market. The value of almost everything else on the site begins to inflate to follow suit. The site makes almost no money off the endeavor. 10-30% of the userbase is either happy or not pissed off, 5% or more of the userbase may leave the site completely.

Okay I've read a lot about rotating spells and re-releasing items and never really put in my 2 cents. Now I imagine my opinion is most likely disliked by the exchangers, who buy items and hold them until they grow in value, and I'm glad to say I'm not one of those people... and I'd like to speak out in what would be, in my opinion, the voices of the not so rich or the newer members.

Ernya has ALOT of items that are no-longer available, DIs CIs and EIs, that's the nature of sites like this. Now I've been on Ernya for years (Since the first Halloween event) so I've been lucky enough to buy those black and white spells when they were released, but what about the people that haven't? Why shouldn't they get the opportunity to get the Black and White spells just because they joined the forum later?

I know that if the spells are re-released the market value will plummet and all those people holding the spells will lose value.... But so what... Seriously. The reason the prices rise is because they are hard to find, because people hoard them.

Lets look hypothetically at Black spells and guess roughly at some numbers. Okay so the black spells were only out for about what 2/3 weeks (I think it was something like that) since they were just released. There are 43 thousand members now and probably around half of that when the black spell was released (so about 22,000). Say on average 50% of those members brought 4 spells each 2 to keep 2 to sell.... that’s around 22,000 spells in the selling circulation. Now that’s is including spells that have already been sold to people who don’t want to let go and spells that exchangers are holding. This is why prices go up in the exchange, because they get rare, and people who missed the opportunity to buy them cheaper try and try to get hold of spells and offer people more and more money so they can actually get their hands on them.

If the spells were to be re-released the value will drop (like the ragdoll skin did with just 50 being put into circulation) but it makes it fair. Why should the older members (yes I know this includes myself) have the privilege of having these items and not give the newer members the same opportunity. Everyone was a new member at some point or another.

I’ll be happy to see spells recirculated into the donation shop @ the price that’s normal for spells(what ever that is in months to come). And I had the same thoughts about the jars and the latest Ragdoll Skin prize thing. Lets face it. Older members have it easy when making a dream avatar nowadays.... why not give the newer members a chance rather than acting like spoilt brats when the precious exchange doesn’t do what you want it too. (low blow.... don’t care)

Well, in reponse to your second worst-case scenario, I can honestly say I think that one is the least likely of all the potentials you've suggested. There is just no logical reason for the site to do that since, as you stated, very few people would buy the spells from the site at a higher price than they can get in the Exchange. The only exception I can think of is newbies who've donated a bunch to try to "get rich quick" that don't know the ins and outs of the Exchange, but even then that tiny demographic wouldn't be enough of an incentive for Emy to release spells that people outside of that area probably won't buy.

On the other hand, the first worst-case scenario, I believe, is also implausible; there has been too much negative feedback from users regarding the effect that a re-release has on the economy on the site. Releasing old spell colours at a lower, or much lower, price than the user set price would set off another wave of angry Exchangers and regular Ernyans who've quested hard to obtain the spells at the exchange price before the re-release. I think Emy is smart enough to recognize that that is a situation which will anger more people than it will please.

The best case scenario seems the most likely to me, because it's the best option for both the users AND the site in terms of money spent and money earned. There will still be some backlash from people, mostly along the lines of "Why are they so expensive now, 150 hearts for a spell is ridiculous, the first time it was released it was 10", but there will always be people who can't see the logical rationale behind a decision that makes them have to work for something they want. Overall, I think if the re-release is handled properly, as in the price point is handled properly and reflects the supply-and-demand, user-set price at that current time, it will actually have an overall positive impact on the site.

@Luna: I'm not sure what you mean by "normal price for spells then", but if they rereleased all the spells at 20 hearts you're looking at a devastating mass exodus. I'd leave, because I donated and worked hard for all my spells and the sad fact of the matter, in reality or otherwise, is that some things aren't fair. Items are like the stock market. You invest early, make good choices, the prices go up and you make a fortune. Does that mean the company is going to start selling shares at a lower price to make them available for newer investors? No. The rerelease at current market prices would be the most reasonable, if Emy wanted the population of the site to stay. A lot of newbies wouldn't want to stay either, because rereleasing in unreasonable ways just doesn't look good for a site, no matter who it benefits. I'm quite certain that Emy will avoid doing something like releasing spells below their market value.

@Savagery: I agree, I think the worst case scenarios are vastly unlikely, and I expect the best-case to be the reality. But situations like this don't call for blind optimism or blind pessimism as is often seen when people react to an announcement about a new feature, it's good to see every facet of the issue and talk about it. If handled correctly this feature will be very beneficial to the site, and even an old dragon of the exchange who is vehemently against rereleasing like me will probably be pleased with the result. By explaining all the ways this situation could be handled, I'm also trying to highlight ways it could go horribly wrong, that way the people who are negative toward the feature can at least find solace in the competence with which it was dealt with. Our admin are nothing if not competent, and I think without a full view of the effects of a single feature with massive impact like the rotating spells, a lot of people forget that. There's no doubt in my mind that the feature will, if it comes to fruition, be very effective and make as few people as possible angry.

@Xerxies... Seriously.... Who would pay $12 for something in the donation shop. That's about £8 for me.... that's about 4 days worth of food.... If Gaia did the same thing the admin's would get slammed by the users, so what makes Ernya any different. Emy might as well not re-release them if they are going to expect $12 for 1 spell.

Comparing it to the stock market is unfair. Emy may need to make a living off ernya but she's not a heartless business woman. Besides Stock Markets crash, No company will ever just keep gaining value, they WILL loose value on those stocks.

A lot of newbies wouldn't want to stay either, because rereleasing in unreasonable ways just doesn't look good for a site, no matter who it benefits[/i]

How is it unreasonable? If the spell colours run out, why shouldn't they re-cycle them? I fail to see why new members would leave if they were given the oppertunity to get spells like we did. I wouldn't even join if I saw items in the donation shop for $12, since it makes Emy look REALLY bad, worse then gaia if that's even possible.

I'd leave, because I donated and worked hard for all my spells and the sad fact of the matter, in reality or otherwise, is that some things aren't fair.

Every one of those spells cost 10 hearts to someone or another, Artifical Inflation and high demand kicked the gold value from 2500 to 25,000. And why should the new members have to suffer for it. When the spells were released, we were given the oppertunity to vote for all the colours, so natually the high demand colours were chosen first... Which kicks their value up even more. I don't think I've ever done an outfit without using the White or Black spell since they came out. I don't doubt that you worked hard and posted alot to get the gold to buy the spells that you didn't donate for, but the sad matter of fact is that no matter what the value of them is now, they are values at 10 hearts each(20 for the newer ones.)

I guess I don't follow you Luna. The people who would pay $12 for an item in the donation shop would be the ones currently paying that for Black Spells in the exchange. You act like these people don't exist. Gaia does indeed have items in their donation shop for $12, if I remember correctly the Zodiacal cost that, and if you have the items, the spells give you more poses than any Evolving Item ever will. So I'm not sure how that would make Emy look bad, since people were more than happy to grab a Zodiacal and didn't bitch at Gaia about it.

If Emy were to rerelease spells at 20 hearts each, she would destroy the economy and show a vast disrespect for the majority of her members by rereleasing items that are described as being available for only one month at a price that destroys their value. I can't imagine the fallout from that. I really, really doubt Emy would do something like that, it's a terrible business move. Even worse than the worst case scenarios.

Thank you, Emy. I agree that this is the only way to go about doing such a thing so it is both fair to new users who want the old colours, as well as old users who've sunk money into Exchanging these colours.

Luna Tsukino wrote:Lets face it. Older members have it easy when making a dream avatar nowadays.... why not give the newer members a chance rather than acting like spoilt brats when the precious exchange doesn’t do what you want it too. (low blow.... don’t care)

Because last I checked this isn't a communistic avatar site.
I don't care about the gold, i make more of it every day. I'm just sick of the "Exchangers are evil attitude."
I'm not even a real exchanger/hoarder and I get this attitude from people often (so naturally I feel compelled to respond to it.)

I am all for the spells being re-released in the way that ernya said. It gets the site more money, and it gets people the spells they want, without slapping those of us who have been loyal in the teeth.

Starkeyy: Yeah, I am with you about the exchangers are evil attitude. Though I am starting to get over those saying it. Cause really, we do lurk, and those that are saying it are only setting themselves up for the majority of us that don't fit the bill to EVER want to do them any favors.

We EVIL exchangers are more likely to help someoen that treats us respectfully than those that hold their noses higher because their better than us.

Seriously, if they want to look down their noses at us, they should donate everything they have, or be considered a hippocrite. Everyone is always questing something.

I have four of at least every spell. Should I spend money on the spells if I can increase my collection at a sale level? Would if I could.

Would I want to go below four a peice, even though I have colors I don't use?

No.

HelloVitu wrote:I don't see the point in discussing the spells and their rotations any further. I've seen so many subject pertaining to it and it makes my head spin. Most of the worst case scenarios I've read are highly unlikely. And just, I don't think it's gonna be as bad as everyone is assuming. At this point, I think people should just wait for it to happen, and then analyze it then.

Except when things aren't discussed before their release people piss themselves over it because no one thinks in the long term, the big picture, right away. It's not until days after the announcement that people become sane enough to make informed opinions. I've seen it happen over and over. By pre-discussing it, maybe we can avoid a lot of the knee-jerk, uninformed reactions and save everyone a bit of headache.

@The issue of Exchangers: There's nothing evil about wanting items to maintain their value, it's completely natural and how things work in real life as well. There's also nothing wrong with having items and wanting to keep them. Just because people want houses doesn't mean you're going to sell the one you live in with no other option. I personally have 20 of each spell, and each one is rightfully mine, I have every right to own them, keep them, and not sell them.

Xerxies wrote:@The issue of Exchangers: There's nothing evil about wanting items to maintain their value, it's completely natural and how things work in real life as well. There's also nothing wrong with having items and wanting to keep them. Just because people want houses doesn't mean you're going to sell the one you live in with no other option. I personally have 20 of each spell, and each one is rightfully mine, I have every right to own them, keep them, and not sell them.

don't mean to butt into a conversation but I agree with this. If I paid real money for my spells it's an investment that I hope will maintain it's value and possibly even increase in value. it's like buying stocks in a company, you expect that the company will do everything in its power to maintain the value of its stocks or even cause them to increase in value (most companies strive for the latter.)

in regards to the topic, I think at first I was a little hesitant about re-releasing spells, but I've come to terms with it if it's done properly. I think it could be really good for the site overall and if it keeps the value the same at least for the spells, I'm okay with it.